Muslim Votes at Risk: TMC on Edge

Jan 09, 2026 - By Ashutosh Roy Politics

Key Highlights

1. Muslim votes remain the backbone of TMC’s electoral success since 2011.
2. Over 90 Assembly seats depend heavily on Muslim voting patterns.
3. Signs of a silent shift in Muslim strongholds are now visible.
4. The 2021 Assembly vs 2024 Lok Sabha results show a clear voting change.
5. Malda and Murshidabad have emerged as the main political battlegrounds.
6. Leaders like Mausam Benazir Noor and Humayun Kabir can split Muslim votes.
7. Rapid temple construction politics has altered Muslim perception of Mamata Banerjee.
8. The Waqf controversy and policy U-turns increased Muslim dissatisfaction.
9. Fear of the BJP among Muslims has declined compared to earlier years.
10. Internal factionalism within TMC has weakened its grip in Muslim-dominated areas.
11. Even a small shift in Muslim votes could seriously hurt TMC’s prospects.
12. The upcoming election is shaping up to be Mamata Banerjee’s toughest test yet.

Is TMC Losing Its Muslim Vote Base?

Suddenly, Mamata Banerjee launched a sharp attack from Gangasagar. She targeted Ram, Bam, and Shyam. In other words, she attacked the BJP, CPM, and Congress. After a long time, she openly criticised the Congress. This happened because Mausam Benazir Noor suddenly left the Trinamool Congress and returned to the Congress. However, Mamata is not worried about just one leader. Instead, her main concern is the Muslim votes.

Cracks Emerge in Muslim Strongholds

Various surveys clearly reveal that the secret behind Mamata Banerjee’s repeated electoral success is mainly the Muslim vote. Since 2011, this community has consistently shown loyalty to Mamata. We have discussed the story of Muslim hardship many times.

However, in the recent past, something new has been happening. Now, Mamata seems to fear losing her exclusive hold over the Muslim votes. As a result, visible lines of concern have appeared on her face.

Can Congress Regain Muslim Votes?

Let us first talk about Mausam Benazir Noor. She is a hereditary heir of the Congress. She is the niece of Barkat Ghani Khan Chowdhury, once a powerful figure from the Kotwali house. Her mother, Ruby Noor, won the Sujapur seat as a Congress candidate.

Later, Mausam joined the Trinamool Congress. She then became a Lok Sabha MP. Now, suddenly, she has made a homecoming. She has returned to the Congress. At the time, she was a Rajya Sabha MP from the Trinamool Congress. Although her tenure was only 15 days, she still resigned from the post.

What is truly surprising is that even the professional political agency I-PAC seems to have had no prior information.

She was also in charge of several constituencies for the Trinamool in the upcoming Assembly elections. This suggests that the top leadership of the Trinamool Congress may not have known about her move. And it is likely this sudden shock that Mamata Banerjee failed to handle. As a result, she began openly attacking the Congress.

Malda–Murshidabad: The New Battleground

It is well known in the political landscape that the Kotwali family has a strong influence in Malda’s politics. Gani Khan Chowdhury is no longer alive. However, his legacy still continues. Today, his nephew Isha Khan Chowdhury is the only Congress MP from Malda and from West Bengal too.

After Dalu Chowdhury, Isha Khan Chowdhury took over that position. Similarly, after Ruby Noor, her daughter Mausam Benazir Noor emerged in politics. The influence of this family directly means influence over Muslim votes.

In Murshidabad district, Muslims are the majority. In Malda, the numbers are almost equal. Moreover, due to infiltration in recent years, it is difficult to know the exact demographic situation now. This is because no census has been conducted in the last 15 years.

Leaders Who Can Split Muslim Votes

On one side, Humayun Kabir with his Babari Masjid has become a major hurdle in Murshidabad. On top of that, now comes Mausam Benazir Noor.

If we look back slightly, one fact stands out. In Malda and Murshidabad, the Congress has won elections even during the strong Left rule. In other words, the Muslim vote there has a kind of traditional bond with the Congress.

2021 vs 2024: A Voting Pattern Shift

The only major exception was 2021. At that time, Muslims lost confidence in the Congress. As a result, they overwhelmingly voted for the Trinamool Congress.

However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a large section of that vote returned to the Congress. Seen in this context, the Muslim vote has clearly become Mamata Banerjee’s biggest headache.

90+ Seats Where Muslim Votes Decide

It is worth noting that in more than 90 Assembly constituencies in the state, the Muslim vote can play a decisive role. In many other seats, it can also strongly influence the outcome. Now the key question is this. Even after extensive Muslim appeasement, why is the Trinamool Congress still so worried about the Muslim vote?

TMC Faces New Muslim Challenge

• First, by building temples one after another, Mamata Banerjee has created confusion among Muslims. Many now see her as pro-Hindu to some extent. Her sudden push for temple construction appears driven by the fear of BJP.
• Second, some Muslims may think differently now. If they must live under Hindu dominance anyway, they may prefer to vote for the BJP directly. After all, the BJP runs the country.
  Moreover, the old fear of the BJP among Muslims has reduced significantly.
• Third, reports by the Sachar Committee and Pratichi Trust have exposed the severe backwardness of Muslims. These findings have now reached even poor and less-educated Muslims.
• Fourth, Muslims did not view Mamata’s plan to protest in Delhi over Waqf issues positively.
  Later, her U-turn on the issue further angered them. Instead, when she asked for delayed data uploads on the central Waqf portal, many Muslims faced fresh problems.
• Fifth, leaders like Mausam Benazir Noor in Malda and Humayun Kabir in Murshidabad matter a lot. Even if a small portion of Muslim votes returns to the Congress, it will hurt Trinamool. At the very least, Humayun Kabir will split votes in Murshidabad.
• Finally, internal factionalism within the Trinamool Congress, especially in Muslim-dominated districts, has weakened the party’s grip on this crucial vote bank.

In summary, despite years of appeasement, multiple political, social, and strategic factors have turned the Muslim vote into a major source of anxiety for Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress.

Will Vote Splitting Hurt TMC in 2026?

What the final result will be, only the future can tell. For now, we can only talk about possibilities. Many things can still happen before the election. In reality, voting in Bengal often resembles a one-day cricket match.

If even a section of Muslim fodder canons stays away from acting as the vote machinery this time, the Trinamool Congress’s worries will increase sharply.