Mamata in Turmoil: Is a BJP Win Easy?

Key Highlights: Mamata in Turmoil

• Mounting Political Pressure: Mamata Banerjee faces growing challenges from legal battles, administrative setbacks, and court-monitored processes.
• Repeated Policy U-Turns: From Aadhaar linking to Waqf and SIR issues, initial resistance often ended in strategic retreat.
• Judicial Oversight Tightens Grip: Courts now closely monitor sensitive matters like voter lists, limiting political maneuvering.
• Corruption Perception Crisis: Sand, coal, cattle, job, and ration scams have damaged the ruling party’s public image.
• Welfare vs Credibility Debate: Increased allowances under Lakshmir Bhandar and youth schemes may offer relief, but long-term trust remains uncertain.
• Internal Factionalism: Group clashes, leadership rivalry, and turf wars within the party create organizational instability.
• Abhishek Factor: Subtle power balancing between Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee adds another layer of political tension.
• Muslim Vote Sensitivity: Waqf and temple-related debates raise concerns among sections of minority voters.
• BJP’s Strategic Gamble: The BJP hoped voter roll revisions would shift the math, but organizational weakness remains a major hurdle.
• Credibility Question for 2026: With leaders switching parties and ED case delays fueling “setting theory,” voter trust becomes the decisive factor.
• 2026 as a Defining Test: The upcoming Bengal election may turn into a historic verdict on governance, perception, and political stability.

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