Mamata in Turmoil: Is a BJP Win Easy?

Feb 28, 2026 - By Ashutosh Roy Current AffairsPolitics

Key Highlights: Mamata in Turmoil

• Mounting Political Pressure: Mamata Banerjee faces growing challenges from legal battles, administrative setbacks, and court-monitored processes. Is Mamata in Turmoil?
• Repeated Policy U-Turns: From Aadhaar linking to Waqf and SIR issues, strategic resistance often ended in complusion retreat.
• Judicial Oversight Tightens Grip: Courts now closely monitor sensitive matters like voter lists, limiting political maneuvering.
• Corruption Perception Crisis: Sand, coal, cattle, job, and ration scams have damaged the ruling party’s public image.
• Welfare vs Credibility Debate: Increased allowances under Lakshmir Bhandar and youth schemes may offer relief, but long-term trust remains uncertain.
• Internal Factionalism: Group clashes, leadership rivalry, and turf wars within the party create organizational instability.
• Abhishek Factor: Subtle power balancing between Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee adds another layer of political tension.
• Muslim Vote Sensitivity: Waqf and temple-related debates raise concerns among sections of minority voters.
• BJP’s Strategic Gamble: The BJP hoped voter roll revisions would shift the math, but organizational weakness remains a major hurdle.
• Credibility Question for 2026: With leaders switching parties and ED case delays fueling “setting theory,” voter trust becomes the decisive factor.
• 2026 as a Defining Test: The upcoming Bengal election may turn into a historic verdict on governance, perception, and political stability.

Is Mamata in Turmoil Ahead of the 2026 Bengal Elections?

Is Mamata in Turmoil? Only her close aides can truly answer that. However, one thing is becoming clear. Everything is not going according to her plan. Something seems out of sync.

From the Waqf issue to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) controversy, developments are not moving in the direction she wants. In fact, several matters appear to be slipping beyond her control. As a result, she has had to step back at certain points. That is unusual for her political style.

Those who have followed Mamata Banerjee for decades know one thing. She rarely retreats. She built her politics on confrontation and strong positioning. Yet now, observers feel that her political ego is facing repeated setbacks.

In fact, that same political ego once led her to break away from the Indian National Congress and form the All India Trinamool Congress.

Has only strong anti-Left aggression brought Mamata into limelight?

Her core ideology was fierce opposition to the Communist Party of India (Marxist). At that time, she accused the state Congress leadership of being too soft on the CPI(M). She believed the party lacked strong anti-Left aggression.

Moreover, in a recent interview with ABP Ananda, she stated that she disliked former Prime Minister P. V. Narasimha Rao. According to her, Rao was sympathetic toward the CPI(M). Therefore, she could never accept his approach.

However, political history tells a slightly different story. The reality is that she left the Congress after losing the state party president election to Somen Mitra. That defeat marked a turning point. Soon after, she charted her own path and reshaped Bengal’s political landscape.

So now, the bigger question remains. Is this another turning point in her political journey? Only time will tell.

Is Mamata’s U-Turn affecting voters?

A few days ago, we wrote in detail about several issues where she initially said “No,” “It won’t happen,” or “I will not allow this.” However, later she had to step back.

From the 2017 Aadhaar linking and RERA issue to today’s Waqf controversy, the pattern looks similar. At first, she strongly opposed these moves. Yet later, she had to accept them. This repeated retreat raises political questions.

The most recent example is even more striking. She clearly stated that she would not allow action against any state government officer. However, after prolonged delay and pressure from the Election Commission of India, she not only had to suspend the officer but also allow an FIR to be filed. That marks a significant shift.

When will Mamata Sanction the Pending DA?

At the same time, there is growing pressure regarding pending Dearness Allowance (DA) payments for state employees. It appears she may again approach the legal route. However, that too creates additional pressure.

Moreover, the ED cases remain another layer of tension. Even if some believe in a “setting theory” with the BJP that may delay ED proceedings, the legal uncertainty itself is a burden. Political calculations do not remove institutional pressure.

In simple terms, a state government in India cannot realistically declare that it will not cooperate with the Union Government. India’s federal structure does not work that way. Confrontation has limits.

Why should West Bengal be deprived of Central Welfare Schemes?

As a result, the real impact falls on the people. Schemes like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana, and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act are not political favors. They are entitlements meant for citizens.

Therefore, when confrontation between the state and the Centre escalates, ordinary people risk losing benefits. And that, ultimately, becomes the biggest political and administrative challenge.

Why Are Legal Battles Increasing Pressure on Mamata Banerjee?

It is rare to see the state government accept a High Court or Supreme Court verdict without resistance. As a result, legal battles continue. Consequently, the state treasury faces pressure, while senior lawyers like Kapil Sibal, Abhishek Manu Singhvi, and Shyam Divan frequently represent the state in crucial hearings.

Even in the last SIR hearing, Kapil Sibal had to clarify the state government’s position. He stated that the final voter list must be published on 28 February. However, the judges responded firmly. They said the list would only include names free from logical discrepancies. The remaining names, if any, would appear in a supplementary list.

In fact, election rules allow voter inclusion until the nomination stage. Therefore, the process cannot be artificially closed early.

Are EROs and AEROs under pressure for SIR?

There are also rumors that the state government wanted EROs and AEROs to complete document verification at the last moment. The alleged aim was to prevent the Election Commission in Delhi from conducting further scrutiny. However, the Chief Electoral Officer reportedly sensed the move and strongly warned the District Magistrates.

Now, the entire SIR process is taking place under judicial supervision. That changes the equation. It means names cannot be added or deleted arbitrarily.

At the same time, if there were any plan to deliberately exclude a section of voters to create unrest in the state, that attempt also faces obstacles. Judicial monitoring reduces the scope for manipulation.

In short, the voter list process is now under tighter institutional control. That significantly limits political maneuvering.

In reality, the biggest obstacles to the state government’s development work are corruption and the lack of long-term planning. People in the state are watching closely. They see leaders and ministers going to jail in cases related to sand, cattle, coal, jobs, and ration scams.

Latest Development on 27 February

The state government has once again approached the Supreme Court over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the voter list. However, the apex court dismissed the plea without delay on February 27.

Chief Justice Surya Kant strongly criticized the move. He clearly stated, “Do not cite minor excuses to stall the entire process”.

As a result, the court refused to interfere. This development has intensified the political debate over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral roll.

This is just a drama of a series of Court cases that the West Bengal Government and Trinamool Congress has been exhibiting continuously during the SIR Process.

Can Welfare Schemes Offset the Growing Perception Crisis?

Politics often runs on perception. And elections, many times, are decided by perception rather than policy details. A classic example is the 1989 government of V. P. Singh. The Bofors corruption narrative played a major role in shaping public opinion. Ultimately, perception shifted power.

Now, the state government appears to be using welfare allowances to manage public sentiment. For instance, it has increased funds under Lakshmir Bhandar and pushed forward benefits under Yuvashree (popularly referred to as “Yuva Sathi” in public discourse).

That remains uncertain. While financial support helps many families, it may not fully counter the perception of corruption. In fact, television footage has captured mixed reactions from young people standing in lines for benefits.

Some express gratitude. Others raise questions about jobs and long-term opportunities.

Therefore, the larger issue remains unresolved. Welfare payments may provide short-term relief. But sustainable development requires clean governance and a clear long-term roadmap.

In the end, voters weigh both benefits and perception. And perception, once formed, is not easy to change.

Is Internal Factionalism Weakening the Trinamool Congress?

Along with governance challenges, internal factionalism within the party has also intensified. Group clashes are no longer isolated incidents. Instead, they are becoming a structural problem.

Moreover, unchecked extortion (tola collection) has created serious damage. Without this illegal flow of money, luxury lifestyles — expensive cars and visible displays of wealth — would not be possible for many local leaders. Therefore, conflict often begins over one basic question: who controls the “share”?

As a result, internal rivalry grows sharper.

In reality, when a party runs mainly on program-based agitation without a strong ideological foundation, sustaining long-term unity becomes difficult.

Such a strategy may defeat the Communist Party of India (Marxist) electorally. However, it does not automatically guarantee long-term organizational stability.

On top of that, tensions between Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee have added another layer of complexity. Headlines appear in television debates and newspapers. Then they fade. But the underlying friction does not disappear so easily.

For example, if Mamata’s key Muslim faces are Firhad Hakim (Bobby Hakim) and Siddiqullah Chowdhury, then Abhishek appears to be promoting Pratikur Rahaman as an alternative face. This subtle positioning reflects internal balancing.

Will Minority Vote Consolidation Decide the 2026 Outcome?

However, issues like Waqf and temple construction have created discomfort among a section of Muslim voters. Their concerns are growing. That makes political management more sensitive.

Meanwhile, leaders like Humayun Kabir and Mausam Benazir Noor represent different district-level power centers. In two separate districts, Murshidabad and Malda,  two separate pressure points have emerged.

Therefore, the challenge is no longer just external opposition. The real test lies inside the party structure. Managing perception outside is difficult. Managing ambition inside may be even harder.

What is the narrative of BJP in Bengal Election 2026?

What is the condition of the Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal?

At present, many leaders seem more comfortable giving media bites than leading sustained street movements. Except for Suvendu Adhikari, regular agitation or consistent grassroots programs are rare. Even within the party, factionalism continues to surface.

Meanwhile, Dilip Ghosh appears to have lost much of his earlier relevance. Other senior leaders are not frequently visible in mass protests. As a result, the party’s street presence looks uneven.

There is also a messaging gap. For example, when Suvendu Adhikari makes strong remarks targeting Muslims, Samik Bhattacharya talks about inclusive development for all. This contrast creates confusion about the party’s core narrative.

In reality, West Bengal’s demography makes it extremely difficult to win power by completely sidelining the Muslim community.

Electoral arithmetic in the state demands broader social outreach. Therefore, sharp polarization may energize one section but alienate another.

Is the “Setting Theory” Affecting BJP’s Credibility?

At the same time, the delay in ED cases has added fuel to the so-called “setting theory.” Many ordinary voters now question whether there is any tacit understanding between political rivals. Consequently, the BJP’s credibility as a serious challenger to the All India Trinamool Congress faces greater scrutiny.

In short, while the ruling party battles perception and internal pressures, the opposition also struggles with consistency and trust. Ultimately, voters will judge not only allegations but also credibility, organization, and clarity of vision.

The Bharatiya Janata Party reportedly had high expectations from the SIR process. Many within the party believed that if one to one-and-a-half crore voters were removed from the rolls, the electoral math would automatically tilt in their favor.

After all, in terms of vote share, they are only about 7 percent behind the ruling All India Trinamool Congress. Therefore, even a small structural shift in the voter list or a slight vote swing could have made a big difference.

Can anti-incumbency wave bring a change in 2026 Bengal Election?

Now, however, the calculation may be changing. Some leaders perhaps believe that voters will repeat a 2011-style negative mandate. In 2011, public anger against the Communist Party of India (Marxist) helped Mamata Banerjee come to power.

Is the BJP may expecting for a similar wave against her in 2026?

However, there is a structural problem. The BJP’s organizational strength in many districts remains weak. Street-level cadre networks are not as deep or stable as required for a decisive state election.

Moreover, a large number of BJP leaders in Bengal originally came from the Trinamool Congress. This creates a credibility gap. Voters may ask a simple question: if leaders switch sides so easily, how strong is their ideological commitment?

As a result, trust becomes a key factor.

Will 2026 Become a Defining Political Test for Bengal?

The 2026 West Bengal Assembly election, therefore, may not just be a contest between parties.

Instead, it could become a larger test for the people of Bengal, a test of perception, credibility, organization, and long-term vision.

FAQ: Mamata in Turmoil & Bengal Politics 2026

Why is “Mamata in Turmoil” trending in West Bengal politics?

The phrase reflects growing political pressure on Mamata Banerjee. Legal challenges, court-monitored voter list revisions, corruption allegations, and internal party tensions have intensified ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.

What is the controversy around the SIR process?

The SIR (Special Intensive Revision) process involves voter list verification. Opposition parties alleged that large-scale voter deletion could alter electoral outcomes. However, judicial supervision has limited arbitrary inclusion or exclusion of names.

How are corruption cases affecting the ruling party’s image?

High-profile arrests and investigations in sand, coal, cattle, job, and ration scams have created a strong public perception issue. In elections, perception often influences voting decisions as much as policy.

Is there internal conflict within the Trinamool Congress?

Yes. Reports of factionalism, local-level turf wars, and subtle leadership tensions between Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee have raised questions about internal unity.

Can welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar change public mood?

Increased cash benefits provide short-term financial relief. However, whether welfare expansion can counter corruption perception and organizational issues remains uncertain.

What challenges does the BJP face in Bengal?

The BJP remains only 5–6% behind in vote share. However, weak grassroots organization, internal factionalism, and credibility concerns due to leader defections from Trinamool limit its advantage.

How important is the Muslim vote in Bengal elections?

West Bengal’s demographic structure makes minority votes electorally significant. Any sharp polarization strategy carries both potential gains and major risks.

Why is the 2026 Bengal election seen as a major test?

The 2026 Assembly election may become a decisive verdict on governance, credibility, corruption perception, and organizational strength. It is shaping up as more than a routine political contest — it could redefine Bengal’s power structure.