Bihar Elections: Cracks in the Coalition and the Rise of of PK in Bihar Elections

The sensational entry of PK in Bihar Elections has spiced up the entire election process. Besides the traditional rivals NDA and Mahagathbandhan, this Bihar election is facing Special Intensive Revision. It has not only shaken the political parties like BJP, RJD, Congress, JDU, the duo has thrown even political analysts off balance. Moreover, there is a negative perception that Bihar is a backward state.

Mahagathbandhan’s Internal Strife in Bihar Elections

The overwhelming response of the Voter Adhikar Yatra of Rahul- Tejashwi duo seemed to accelerate momentum of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. The triumphant journey suddenly hits the brakes after the nomination filing. Cracks in the electoral alliance are now visible. Out of 243 seats, RJD has filed nominations in 143 seats as the senior partner. Congress has filed in 61 seats. The remaining seats go to CPIML and other smaller stakeholders.

The friction is most visible in northern Bihar area, where both RJD and Congress candidates have entered the fray. Notably, both the parties have got significant presence in the Darbhanga, Vaishali, and Muzaffarpur region and the leaders have their own party commitments and compulsions. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), though insignificant, has withdrawn them from this election. They have got influences in the Bihar’s tribal belt and they are the de-facto partner of Congress in Jharkhand and other states.

NDA’s Apparent Stability and Future Tensions

The NDA alliance is rather look more stable with the equal seat sharing formula. Hence the big brother BJP and JDU have filed 101 nominations each. Consequently, the two major stakeholder have seemingly ignored the small partners.

Their problem appears in the post-election phase. The Modi–Shah duo strongly resists accepting Nitish Kumar as the Chief Minister.

Another dominating factor remains the health and mental deterioration of Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar, the famous “palturam”, labelled for his frequent flip-flop, reportedly has already initiated the secret discussion with his old partner Lalu Prasad Yadav. Somehow, Nitish Kumar is hardly reluctant in leaving his Chief Minister’s office till his survival.

The Charisma of the Leaders and entry of PK in Bihar Elections

Lalu gained credibility by stopping Advani’s Rath Yatra and Tejashwi is till leveraging Lalu’s bravery and true secular image. The Muslim and Yadav still remain as his exclusive vote bank in Bihar Elections. Rather he was famed as “Mohissa” for the backward classes. How can one forget that “Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu” had been an enchanting slogan in Bihar?

Similarly, Nitish Kumar still carries the charisma of Good Governance and women’s welfare. The Government has disbursed a quantum amount of Rs.10,000 to each eligible women just a couple of months back.

We need to delve into the history of Bihar to understand its political dynamics. Jayaprakash Narayan, who is often referred to as “Lok Nayak”, has come up from Bihar only. Moreover, he earned his title for his role as a leader of the Indian independence movement and a champion of social and political reforms. Jayaprakash Narayan is remembered for leading the opposition against Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in the 1970s.  Additionally, He called for a “total revolution” to overthrow her government.

Today’s two main stakeholders Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar are strong disciples of Jayprakash.

The Historical Context of Bihar Elections

Bihar’s politics grows complex due to caste dynamics, unstable coalitions, and powerful political personalities. Janata Dal got a decisive victory in the state in 1995 assembly elections; political maneuver ensured Lalu Prasad Yadav’s victory in the chair of chief minister. Lalu Prasad Yadav formed Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in 1997. In 2003, the Samata Party led by George Fernandes and Nitish Kumar merged with the Sharad Yadav faction of Janata Dal and Lok Shakti.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal won the most seats in the 2000 assembly elections. Yet an alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samata Party formed a short-lived government. However, the year 2005 found the era of a stable Government in Bihar and Nitish Kumar, the turncoat politician has kept on continuous changing supporting colours to remain as the Chief Minister. Bihar elections have witnessed both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar.

The X-Factor: Entry of PK in Bihar Elections

The emergence of the third contender, Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor,  may work as the X-factor in the upcoming election, which seems to be a neck-and-neck battle between NDA and Mahagathbandhan. Prahsnat Kishor had been a pole strategist with an exemplary track record, has become highly noticeable in print media and social media including YouTube channels. He has launched his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) in 2024, which he declares to be a peoples’ party, has been contesting in most of the seats. So, the entry of PK in Bihar Elections has certainly created a churning.

There is no wonder if everything accumulates to a fractured mandate, the reminiscent of 2005 assembly election. If he can raise a plebiscitary appeal to the people to decide Bihar’s future, it may be crafted to mislead the masters of electoral predictions.