Is the Binary Politics ultimate killer of CPM & Congress in Bengal?
CPM & Congress have become marginal forces today when the Bengal election 2026 is approaching.
Meanwhile, the TMC and BJP have carefully promoted intense communal polarization. They created a massive political spectacle to dominate public focus. Consequently, voters feel they cannot imagine any other alternative.
In addition, these leading parties constantly remind the public of the “horrors” from the long CPM and Congress regimes. Furthermore, the people of West Bengal traditionally prefer a direct two-party poll battle.
Now, let’s analyze this political shift in detail.
Why Does the CPM & Congress Alliance Fail to Convert Rallies Into Votes?
CPM and Congress ruled Bengal for decades, which naturally created strong anti-incumbency. Specifically, elderly voters still remember the dark days of police atrocities under Prafulla Sen and the extrajudicial killings during Siddhartha Shankar Ray’s Emergency rule.
CPM decline in West Bengal
One can not identify easily the Reasons for CPM’s downfall in Bengal
While the Left era ended with Singur and Nandigram, people still recall several haunting incidents:
- The Marichjhapi massacre and Bantala violence.
- The Bijon Setu killings and Nanoor massacre.
- The horrors of Choto Angaria.
Consequently, voters show no desire to bring CPM or Congress back to power amidst this atmosphere of hate and dominance.
Furthermore, the CPM struggled to balance its appeal. They focused heavily on the poor but largely ignored the middle class or “Bhadralok“. In addition, a massive wave of defections weakened both parties:
- Key figures like Khagen Murmu, Sankar Ghosh, and Rezzak Mollah left the CPM.
- Prominent leaders like Manas Bhunia, Sudip Bandyopadhyay, and Somen Mitra abandoned Congress.
- Grassroots workers joined the TMC or BJP for money, safety, or survival.
Ultimately, CPM and Congress failed to protect their own supporters. The Brigade rallies draw massive crowds or the “Save Bengal” campaign receives a great response but massive rally crowds do not turn into actual votes.
This explains why leaders like Md. Salim now seeks alliance with the ISF or meets Humayun Kabir secretly.
So, there are multiple reasons for CPM’s downfall in Bengal.
Meanwhile, the BJP faces its own backlash over incidents in Hathras, Unnao, Manipur, the 2002 Gujarat riots, etc.
TMC vs CPM history since 2004
| Year | Election | TMC Vote % | TMC Seats | CPI(M) Vote % | CPI(M) Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Lok Sabha | 21.04% | 1 / 42 | 41.81% | 26 / 42 |
| 2009 | Lok Sabha | 31.18% | 19 / 42 | 33.10% | 9 / 42 |
| 2011 | Assembly | 38.93% | 184 / 294 | 30.08% | 40 / 294 |
| 2014 | Lok Sabha | 39.05% | 34 / 42 | 23.60% | 2 / 42 |
| 2016 | Assembly | 44.91% | 211 / 294 | 19.75% | 26 / 294 |
| 2019 | Lok Sabha | 43.28% | 22 / 42 | 6.28% | 0 / 42 |
| 2021 | Assembly | 47.94% | 213 / 294 | 4.73% | 0 / 294 |
Why was a Shift in Voter Base in Bengal?
So, CPM and Congress left a massive vacuum in Bengal’s opposition politics. Naturally, when a void appears, another force steps in to fill it. In this case, the BJP occupied that space, leading to an extraordinary and inorganic growth.
- Specifically, the BJP’s rise happened rapidly:
- In 2014, the party held only two seats.
- By the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, they suddenly jumped to 18 seats.
Their vote share surged from 17% to a massive 40.64%.
Furthermore, the BJP deserves credit for maintaining its momentum. Once they reached that peak, they successfully held onto their vote percentage in subsequent elections. Consequently, they remain the dominant opposition force in the state today.
They have become the key forces in Bengal Elections 2026. There may be another set of Shift in Voter Base in 2026.
Growth of BJP since 2004 in Bengal
| Year | Election Type | BJP Vote Share (%) | BJP Seats Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Lok Sabha | 8.06% | 0 / 42 |
| 2009 | Lok Sabha | 6.14% | 1 / 42 |
| 2011 | Assembly | 6.52% | 0 / 294 |
| 2014 | Lok Sabha | 17.02% | 2 / 42 |
| 2016 | Assembly | 10.16% | 3 / 294 |
| 2019 | Lok Sabha | 40.25% | 18 / 42 |
| 2021 | Assembly | 38.14% | 77 / 294 |
Can the Secular Parties Break the TMC-BJP Media Monopoly?
CPM and Congress struggle to find space in a media landscape dominated by the TMC and BJP. Specifically, television and digital platforms focus almost entirely on these two parties, either for TRP or other unknown reasons.
Consequently, the media uses its power to highlight only specific political programs, making it hard to ignore the influence of social media today.
Historically, West Bengal followed a tradition of two-party struggles. This rivalry evolved over the decades:
- The Past: A long-standing battle between the Left and Congress.
- The Transition: Over a decade of TMC versus the Left.
- The Present: A direct fight between the BJP and TMC.
In addition, leaders from both dominant parties excel at creating “political optics“. For instance, Suvendu Adhikari and Samik Bhattacharya frequently urge CPM supporters to vote for the BJP in the 2026 Bengal elections. Therefore, the call for “change” fits perfectly into this competitive polarized environment.
Looking back, Bengal witnessed a massive change in 2011, and everyone knows the current state of the state. Now, we hear the call for change once again for 2026. However, a major shift has occurred in the opposition strategy:
- In 2016 and 2021, the CPM and Congress fought as allies.
- Today, both parties are fighting the elections separately.
The Trend of Opinion Polls for Bengal Assembly Elections 2026
| Survey Agency | TMC Projection | BJP Projection | Others (Left/Cong/ISF) |
| Matrize-IANS | 140–160 | 130–150 | 8–16 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 155–165 | 110–115 | 9–14 |
| News18 Opinion Poll | Comfortable Victory | Strong Challenger | Limited Impact |
| Vote Vibe Survey | 150–158 | 125–135 | 5–10 |
| India Today – CVoter | 145-158 | 125–140 | 5–12 |
| Data Collected from various TV Channels and Internet | |||
Yashwant Deshmukh, the director and founding editor of CVoter, analyzes that BJP failed to still highlight Mamata Banerjee as Anti-Hindu. Moreover, she has got a strong support base among Bengal Women Voters and poorer segment besides her Muslim Vote Bank.
Did Congress-CPM alliance failure expedite Bengal’s Polarized Politics?
CPM & Congress face a future that depends entirely on what the people of Bengal want.
However, practicing identity politics or competitive polarization is like riding a tiger. We must remember that religion divided India. Additionally, the Radcliffe Line split Bengal in a very strange way.
Since independence, we built an environment where Hindus and Muslims lived side by side. Although differences surfaced occasionally, major riots did not occur.
In fact, Jyoti Basu once said that riots cannot happen if the government refuses to allow them. Buddhadeb Bhattacharya also threatened to crush anyone attempting to start a riot.
Today, the fire of communal violence is spreading everywhere. Consequently, Mamata Banerjee now builds many temples after previously facing accusations of Muslim appeasement.
Ultimately, the choices of Bengal’s citizens will decide the survival of the CPM and Congress in 2026 Bengal Elections.
Bottom Line
Real secular forces never truly fade away. However, the CPM must rebuild its famous grassroot connections to stay competitive. By shifting focus back to the people, the party can regain its standing in Bengal politics and ensure a shift in voter base, slowly but certainly.
Focus on Core Issues
First, the party needs to champion essential needs like “Roti, Kapra, Makaan” (Food, Clothing, and Shelter). They must also address local problems, poor governance, and corruption. While a digital presence helps spread messages, over-reliance on social media is a mistake.
Prioritize Physical Presence
Instead of staying behind screens, leaders must engage with citizens in person. Street politics and physical outreach are the best ways to build an emotional bond with the masses. Fortunately, the party’s enthusiastic young brigade is dedicated enough to lead this charge.
Long-Term Strategy
Continuous effort will eventually make the CPM highly relevant in West Bengal Politics again. To succeed, the party’s think tank should also revisit and refine its key principles to ensure a shift in voter base again.
Summary of Key Steps:
- Reconnect with local communities physically.
- Address basic needs and fight local corruption.
- Balance digital media with real-world action.
- Empower the bright youth to drive the movement forward.
10 key takeaways:
- Marginalization of Traditional Powers: Once-dominant forces, the CPM & Congress have now become marginal players in Bengal’s electoral arena.
- Political Vacuum: The decline of the Left and Congress created a massive opposition vacuum that the BJP rapidly and “inorganically” filled.
- Extreme Polarization: The TMC and BJP have successfully framed the narrative as a two-party “Political spectacle”, making it difficult for voters to imagine a third alternative.
- Historical Baggage: Voters, especially the elderly, still carry dark memories of violence and “horrors” from the long CPM and Congress regimes.
- BJP’s Inorganic Growth: The BJP jumped from a 4% vote share in 2011 to roughly 40% by 2019, maintaining a stable core of around 38–40% through 2026.
- Shift in Class Support: The CPM struggled because while they focused on the poor, they failed to retain the support of the middle class and “Bhadralok“.
- Leadership Drain: Both parties have suffered from high-profile defections, with key leaders and grassroots workers joining the TMC or BJP for safety or survival.
- Alliance Breakdown: After contesting together in 2016 and 2021, the CPM and Congress are fighting the 2026 elections separately, significantly altering the opposition’s strategy.
- Media Monopoly: The audio-visual and social media landscape focuses almost exclusively on the TMC-BJP rivalry, leaving little room for other voices.
- The Crowd-to-Vote Gap: Despite drawing massive crowds at Brigade rallies or campaigns like “Save Bengal”, the Left-Congress alliance consistently fails to convert that energy into actual votes.
People Also Ask (FAQ)
Why are CPM and Congress losing power in West Bengal?
CPM and Congress are losing ground because they face strong anti-incumbency from their long years in power. Specifically, many voters still remember the political violence and economic stagnation of past decades. Additionally, most of their leaders and grassroots workers have defected to the TMC or BJP for better political security.
How did the BJP grow so fast in Bengal?
The BJP filled the political vacuum that the Left Front and Congress left behind. Consequently, the party saw an “inorganic” growth, jumping from a 4% vote share in 2011 to over 40% in 2019. Furthermore, the BJP successfully consolidated the anti-TMC vote by presenting itself as the only strong alternative.
Why Congress-CPM alliance failure in the 2026 elections?
Unlike the 2016 and 2021 elections, the CPM and Congress are currently contesting the 2026 elections separately. This shift comes as the Congress party aims to contest all 294 seats on its own. As a result, the “Third Front” vote is now split, which may further benefit the TMC or BJP.
Why do large rallies not result in votes for the Left?
The Left can still organize massive rallies at the Brigade Parade Ground. However, these crowds often consist of dedicated activists rather than the general voting public. Moreover, without strong booth-level protection, many supporters choose to vote for the TMC or BJP to ensure their vote “counts” in a polarized race.
What is the main issue in the 2026 Bengal elections?
Identity politics and communal polarization remain the dominant themes. Meanwhile, the narrative focuses heavily on the direct “political spectacle” between Mamata Banerjee’s TMC and the BJP’s call for change. Consequently, issues like unemployment or the “Bhadralok” middle-class concerns often get pushed to the background.